The Mani Shankar Aiyar Gaffe: Why Congress is Panicking Over a "Third Term" Prediction

The political climate in Thiruvananthapuram reached a boiling point today as the Congress party scrambled to perform damage control. At the ‘Vision 2031’ international conference, veteran leader Mani Shankar Aiyar didn't just praise the LDF’s Panchayati Raj model—he went as far as "predicting" the return of Pinarayi Vijayan as Chief Minister.

This matters because it provides the LDF with a potent psychological edge; by having a rival party veteran admit the "certainty" of their victory, the Left can now frame their 2026 bid as an inevitable continuation of development rather than a hard-fought contest.

The BIGSTORY Angle (The Reframe)

While the media focuses on the embarrassment for the Congress, the real BIGSTORY is the "Succession Crisis" in the Left. By waiving the 75-year age limit for Vijayan, the CPI(M) has tacitly admitted that they have no other leader capable of securing a hat-trick.

The reframe is this: Is the LDF moving toward a "One-Man Show"? The party that long championed "collective leadership" is now entirely dependent on an octogenarian face. If Vijayan wins, he becomes the most powerful figure in Kerala’s history; if he loses, the party may find itself without a clear path forward for the next generation of leadership.

The Context (Rapid Fire)

• The Trigger: Mani Shankar Aiyar’s speech on Feb 15, 2026, at the Kerala Legislative Assembly complex.
• The Backstory: Kerala historically alternates power between LDF and UDF every five years; Vijayan broke this cycle in 2021 and now aims for a first-ever third term.
• The Escalation: Aiyar’s comments follow a month of "Vision 2031" promotional campaigns by the LDF that focused exclusively on Vijayan’s image, ignoring other cabinet ministers.

The Chessboard (Key Players)

• Pinarayi Vijayan: The Incumbent. Responded to Aiyar's praise on X (Twitter), calling it a "united belief in democracy," further leaning into the endorsement.
• Mani Shankar Aiyar: The Disruptor. Today (Feb 16), he claimed his remarks were "blown out of proportion" but reiterated that the LDF is doing "outstanding work."
• V.D. Satheesan (LoP): Leading the UDF counter-attack, calling Aiyar’s views "personal" and "irrelevant" to the ground reality of the state.

The Implications (Your Wallet & World)

• Short Term: Political Polarization. Expect a more aggressive, face-to-face campaign between Vijayan and UDF leaders. The "soft approach" of senior Congress leaders like Aiyar will be strictly discouraged by the AICC.
• Long Term: If the LDF wins a third term, expect a significant push toward "Market-Aligned Development." The Finance Ministry has already signaled that a 2026 win would be used to green-light more large-scale, investment-heavy projects like the SilverLine or similar infrastructure upgrades.

The Steel Man (The Counter-Argument)

The strongest argument for the Congress is that "Delhi leaders don't know the ground." KPCC leaders argue that Aiyar’s praise is based on academic data of Panchayati Raj rather than the daily anti-incumbency issues like salary delays and tax hikes. Proponents of this view say that voters will punish the LDF for "governance fatigue," regardless of what a former Union Minister says at a seminar.

The Closing Question

Is Pinarayi Vijayan truly "indispensable" for the Kerala Left, or is the party taking a massive risk by putting all its eggs in one 80-year-old basket? Share your take in the comments.

FAQs

• Q: Is Pinarayi Vijayan contesting the 2026 Kerala election?
• A: Yes, the CPI(M) leadership has confirmed he will lead the LDF in 2026, granting him a special exemption from the party's 75-year age limit.
• Q: What did Mani Shankar Aiyar say about Pinarayi Vijayan?
• A: On February 15, 2026, he stated he was "sure" Pinarayi Vijayan would be the next Chief Minister, praising Kerala's Panchayati Raj progress under the Left.
• Q: Has the Congress expelled Mani Shankar Aiyar for his comments?
• A: No, the Congress party has officially distanced itself from the remarks, calling them "personal capacity" statements, but no disciplinary action has been announced.

Sources: The Hindu, India Today, Deshabhimani